There is a high bar for mass market autonomous driving solutions. Objective experts now predict that mass market adoption of autonomous vehicles is likely around 2025-2030.

Three autonomous vehicle business models have emerged; Tesla wants to sell more cars, Uber wants to eliminate costly drivers, and Waymo wants to own the data. Waymo will win.

The winner in autonomous vehicles won’t be whoever has the best LIDAR or sleekest vehicles. It’ll be whoever owns the passenger experience and creates a developer platform similar to smartphone operating systems.

Right now, the technology exists to get to level 4 or 5 of autonomous driving, but it is prohibitively expensive to achieve mass-market commercialization.